‘American support for Israel is effectively unconditional’, says former US army officer

Krishnan Guru-Murthy: When you look at today’s threat from the State Department and defence secretary, how does it square with the reality of how the defence and intelligence community in America is knitted into Israeli policy?
Harrison Mann: First, I think we should rephrase this. I did not read that letter and absorb that it was a threat. I think that’s how it’s been reported and we’ve seen headlines that went to the extent of saying ‘Biden administration threatens an arms embargo’. But the actual language of the letter says that the United States may consider following its own laws if Israel does not clean up its act in 30 days. So I want to be clear first that there is no commitment in that letter or in the statements of the Biden-Harris administration that the United States will actually change its policy towards Israel if Israel does not implement the recommendations in that letter.
I think it’s still a significant document, not because it’s necessarily going to change the level of US support for Israel right now, but because it’s a really unusually explicit record of the administration’s commitment, both to overcoming or breaking US law to continue arming Israel, and also to the amount of awareness that they’ve had about how Israel is impeding US aid, starving civilians. There’s a very detailed list of demands and recommendations in the letter, and you can really only make those if you understand all of the ways that Israel is in fact impeding aid. But I don’t think that that threat really squares with another big decision the administration made this week, which was deploying 100 US soldiers with the third air defence battery to Israel. So I don’t think it really represents a significant intention to change our level of support.
Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Having worked in defence intelligence, is the reality that American support for Israel is effectively unconditional?
Harrison Mann: Yes, absolutely. And I can tell you from October, you know, when I started thinking about quitting, we saw in the intel community, we would accept similar language that the Department of Defence used, which was we will accept the credible assurances of the Israeli government that our arms, or in my case our intelligence support, is not going to contribute to war crimes or violations of international humanitarian law. And the policy of accepting their credible assurances has not changed to date, despite many, many threats that we might actually do something about it. So this letter appears to be an attempt to say the administration is finally not going to take Israel’s word for it, but it would be the first time that they actually follow through.
Krishnan Guru-Murthy: Are you the sort of, the lone individual, the exception that proves the rule? I mean, or are there other people like you, that you came across, who share misgivings about US policy?
Harrison Mann: No. There’s an extremely large, at least plurality of people within defence and foreign policy, national security circles who feel the same way. When I resigned, I discovered there’s a lot of people in my office at DIA [Defence Intelligence Agency] who felt the same way. And I think actually the existence of this letter indicates that there are people who want this information to get out because while it may be intended to placate some critics, it’s also quite damning of the Biden-Harris administration.
Krishnan Guru-Murthy: When you look at the sort of, the diplomatic plans, though, that the US seems to be supporting, which essentially are a sort of an Israeli Emirati plan, you know, the Palestinian Authority just kind of rejects and gets furious about. Are these regarded as sort of serious diplomatic initiatives or are they just something to talk about?
Harrison Mann: Yeah. These day-after plans started circulating and because of my job I was able to see them, in October, in November of last year and they’ve never really quite been in touch with reality. I think the Emirates sees them as a great way to score points with the administration by promising to be helpful. But they know it’s never going to be implemented.
How are you going to have additional foreign soldiers in Gaza while Hamas still exists? And we’ve seen right now Israel cannot fully defeat Hamas. So do we really think the UAE is signing up to have its soldiers fight or police Hamas? I doubt it. And I doubt that the Emirati leadership intends that either. I would note that this most recent plan is missing some of the original partners for this kind of joint Arab peace force. It used to have Morocco. It used to have Saudi Arabia, and I think even Egypt was discussed. So it does signal a certain lack of interest or lack of hope in cooperating with the US on this from other traditional Arab partners.